Three weeks ago, an alliance of religious
parties known as the MMA made a show of force in the parliamentary elections in
Pakistan, greatly increasing their share of national votes and gaining control
of the two smaller of Pakistan's four provinces. Then, last Sunday, the
pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) emerged victorious in the
general elections in Turkey, capturing 35 percent of the vote and a majority of
its own in the parliament. These electoral results in two major allies in the
war on terrorism have been largely misread as a proof of rising Islamic
militancy. However, these results are due not to an increase in Islamic
extremism, but to deeper social and political problems in these
countries.
A revival of religiosity has been
observable both in Pakistan and Turkey in recent years, just as it has in the
United States. However, this phenomenon has only limited relevance to the
electoral results, which have much more to do with decades of mismanagement and
corruption at the hand of mainstream political parties, which have alienated
mainly moderate populations.
Because of
mismanagement, incompetence and corruption, the Turkish mainstream political
parties have steadily declined from 1991 until the last election. The
traditionally dominant center-right has gone from 52 percent in 1991 to 15
percent last Sunday, marred by internal bickering, fragmentation and corruption
scandals. In its place, the predominantly conservative Turkish electorate has
found itself forced to try new alternatives.
In
1995, this meant the pro-Islamic Welfare Party (WP). The WP came to power in
1996 and failed miserably, challenging the secular order of the country and
being deposed by a backstage military intervention. Voters then deserted it,
opting for the Nationalist Party (MHP). The Nationalists then took part in a
coalition government that presided over Turkey's worst economic crisis in
decades. The disgruntled electorate now moved to the only remaining
non-establishment alternative, the moderate pro-Islamic AKP. Not so much because
it was religious, but because it was an untried alternative that could perhaps
do something about Turkey's economic problems. The AKP earned respect for its
track record in administering Turkey's major cities such as Istanbul and Ankara
successfully for the better part of a decade — one reason that has prompted even
some devout secularists to vote for them.
The
Pakistani case is more complicated. Though Turkey is more secularized than
Pakistan, religious parties have generally failed to attract the Pakistani
electorate. Yet, in the last election, they moved forward considerably,
capturing 52 (19 percent) of the seats in the National Assembly, leading to
headlines of an extremist, anti-American wind blowing through the country. Yet,
the MMA's advance was much more related to other social and political
factors.
It was the first time that Pakistan's
diverse and bickering religious parties appeared as a united front, instead of
competing for the same seats.
Secondly, they
benefited from the discrediting of the two mainstream political parties, the
Muslim League and the People's Party, which were both twice in government in the
1990s and blatantly mismanaged the country.
Thirdly, Gen. Pervez Musharraf went out of his
way to undermine these two parties, leaving the playing field open for the MMA,
while the government-sponsored "King's Party" fared worse than expected. Also,
observers often fail to note that the MMA only really gained votes in
Baluchistan and the Northwest Frontier Province, both bordering Afghanistan. In
the populous Punjab and Sindh provinces, which elect 209 of the parliament's 272
members, the MMA only got nine seats. In Baluchistan and the NWFP, the MMA
triumphed because the local people have felt a tangible sting from the war on
terrorism.
Since September 11, Pashtuns that
inhabit Pakistan's border regions with Afghanistan have seen their income from
cross-border trade and smuggling decrease dramatically. Moreover, the 5
million-strong Tribal Areas were allowed to vote for the first time this year,
adding 11 seats to the parliament from the most fiercely religious areas of the
country, of which most were captured by the
MMA.
The elections in Pakistan and Turkey
should not be seen as a sign of Islamic extremism, for they are not. They
testify to the deep political malaise of these two countries, and to the
determination of voters to express their dissatisfaction with a discredited
political establishment. These states are, and will remain, crucial U.S. allies,
as long as proper attention is paid to their real internal problems and their
grave economic dilemmas.
Svante E.
Cornell is the editor of the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, a publication of the
Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Johns Hopkins University-SAIS.