Dr.
Svante E. Cornell
Central
Asia-Caucasus Institute, Johns Hopkins University-SAIS
Turkey is gradually coming to the fore as a central country for the post-Taliban Afghanistan. This emerging role of Turkey presents certain dangers and challenges, but also tremendous opportunities to increase its influence in Central Asia. To be successful, Turkey must pay attention to its relations with regional countries.
As the
war in Afghanistan progresses, regional countries in Southwest Asia are
currently assessing how the aftermath of 11 September has affected their
regional position, their challenges, as well as their opportunities. Whereas
Pakistan’s dramatic turnabout from supporting the Taliban to helping the US
destroy them caught most attention, little was mentioned of Turkey. However, it
is gradually becoming clear that Turkey’s role in regional and global politics
has increased significantly due to the realignments currently taking place. Turkey
is likely to play a central role in the military and political developments in
Afghanistan after the demise of the Taliban. This will create a need for Turkey
to reassess its relationships with especially Pakistan, and presents an
opportunity for Turkey to assume an important role in the region.
As all foreign powers
having done so know, being involved in Afghanistan is a dangerous task.
Militarily, terrorists and guerrillas in Afghanistan have an unrivaled capacity
to cause harm to great powers, a capacity that even the U.S. seems to have
underestimated. Turkey is nevertheless one of the best placed countries to be
involved in peacemaking missions in Afghanistan, for several reasons. First,
Turkey is a Muslim country. The presence of Turkish soldiers in Afghanistan
will much easier be accepted by the country’s population than that of British
or American troops. Secondly, Turkey does not neighbor Afghanistan. This is an
advantage and not a drawback for Turkey, since its involvement is not a direct
threat to any other regional power: Turkey has no interest in controlling
Afghanistan or imposing a government there, as most of its neighbors have tried
to do. Third, no country has a military that is better trained in mountain and
guerrilla warfare than Turkey does. The experience and professionalism of its
armed forces is widely respected, and therefore a leading role for Turkey on
the ground in Afghanistan would be logical. Finally, as a NATO member, Turkey
is also trusted by the U.S. and would have a clear western mandate for its
role. The Turkish notion of secular state in a Muslim society appears a far
better alternative than it did even two months ago.
The
potential gains for Turkey are significant. First, a successful role in
Afghanistan would grant Turkey recognition and prestige worldwide as a
responsible and stabilizing force in the Muslim world. Moreover, it will give
Turkey a new opportunity to increase its role in Central Asia. Turkish efforts
to project influence in Central Asia were less than totally successful in the
1990s. Whereas Ankara’s leadership role is indisputable in the Caucasus,
especially in Azerbaijan, but also in Georgia, its image in Central Asia is
less prominent. Russia and China have exerted more influence there, as the
recent formation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has proven. However,
the new situation in and around Afghanistan may change that. With American
forces in Uzbekistan, Central Asian countries can now have greater independence
from joint Russo-Chinese efforts at keeping the U.S. and Turkey out of the
region. In this sense Turkey should consider a diplomatic offensive in
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
More
importantly, the changes in Pakistan provide a historic opportunity to revive
the Turkish-Pakistani relationship that had been weakening largely because of
Turkish apprehension of Pakistan’s Islamization. But President Musharraf grew
up in Turkey, and he is a self-avowed follower of Atatürk. When presented with
a chance to clean up Pakistan’s Islamic extremism, Musharraf jumped to take
this chance. Turkey will hardly find a more benevolent and trustworthy ruler in
Islamabad.
Restoring
the Turkish-Pakistani alliance would dramatically benefit Turkish interests for
at least three reasons. Firstly, to play a role in Afghanistan, Turkey needs to
act in cooperation with Pakistan. The Pakistani leadership knows Afghanistan
and has better ties there than any other neighboring state. Pakistan would be
the base, the channel of Turkish activity there both during and after the
current war. Secondly, after cementing its brotherly relations with Pakistan,
Turkey can play an important role in bringing Central Asia and Pakistan closer
together. Central Asian leaders have been suspicious of Pakistan because of its
support for the Taliban and the Taliban’s support for the Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan. However, peace in Afghanistan requires understanding between its
neighbors. If Pakistan and Uzbekistan can come to an understanding and improve
their currently bad relations, the chances for stability in Afghanistan
increase; so do possibilities for trade links between landlocked Central Asia
and the Arabian Sea. Thirdly, by its presence in Afghanistan and by bringing
Pakistan and Central Asia closer together, Turkey can promote the independence
of Central Asian states, especially Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the political
and economic powerhouses of the region. Stability in Afghanistan and trade
links to the south would lessen their dependence on Russia for both security
and trade. Turkey is the country that can best play this role, which serves its
interests in Central Asia. In turn, Turkey’s role as a mediator and stabilizer
will increase, as will opportunities for Turkish companies to invest in this
area.
In
crafting its policy, Turkey needs to pay attention to several factors. The
first is its earlier reliance on links with Rashid Dostum. Dostum is the
representative of the Uzbek community in Afghanistan, which Turkey is closely
tied with linguistically. But Turkey cannot play a neutral, stabilizing role in
Afghanistan if identified only with Dostum, one of the most corrupt and
blood-soiled of Afghanistan’s leaders. Dostum is generally perceived as nothing
but a brutal gangster, and moreover, is believed to take orders from Moscow. To
be able to play any role at all, Turkey must hence forge links with the largest
ethnic group in Afghanistan, the Pashtuns. Given that Pakistan plays the role
of protector of the Pashtun population, Pakistan is also in this respect
Turkey’s road into Afghanistan. If Turkey, with Pakistani support, manages to
earn the trust of Pashtun leaders, it can also play a crucial role in bridging
the enmity between the northern peoples, including Turkmens and Uzbeks, and the
Pashtuns, and hence advance the chances of peace considerably.
A new
geopolitical reality may be emerging in Central Asia. The Pakistani-Turkish
relationship may open up new opportunities for both countries in securing the
future stability of Afghanistan, the independence of Central Asian states, and the
improvement of trade links from Central Asia. An extraordinary opportunity is
in Turkey’s hands, which it should not forsake.