To be published shortly in Eurasia Insight, www.eurasianet.org

A STRIKE OF GENIUS?
AZERBAIJAN’S ‘DIRECTED’ ELECTIONS

Dr. Svante E. Cornell*

The Azerbaijani Central Electoral Commission’s decision to bar two main opposition parties, the Musavat Party and the Democratic Party, from participating in the upcoming parliamentary vote can be seen as part of a larger strategy related, beyond the aim of securing continued control of the country by the current ruling élite, to regime succession and Council of Europe membership.

Azerbaijan’s upcoming parliamentary elections are for several reasons crucial to the country’s future. Most immediately, the Council of Europe (CE) has linked Azerbaijan’s membership in the body to the democratic conduct of the elections. The Council desires to welcome Armenia and Azerbaijan into the body simultaneously, stressing its neutrality in the conflict between the two countries. Hence both countries’ memberships are on hold pending the outcome of Azerbaijan’s elections. A flawed election would be likely to result in Armenia being accepted in the Council, where Georgia is already a member, leaving Azerbaijan as the only South Caucasian state denied membership. Such a development would be a major setback for Baku’s international standing and indeed a humiliation for the regime. Secondly, President Heydar Aliyev’s sheer age (at 78 years) as well as health condition indicates that a regime succession is likely to take place in the next five years. In this context, a somewhat legitimately elected parliament, where most of the country’s political forces are represented, would be a crucial asset in ensuring an orderly regime succession. Succession politics would be more likely to take place in the parliament than in the streets, something that might not be the case if the next parliament would bear the same rubber-stamp image as the present one.

Political observers in Baku have long predicted that President Aliyev is preparing the ground for handing power over to his son Ilham, currently vice-head of the state oil company. The parliamentary list of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (NAP) indeed shows Ilham in a top position, prompting speculation that the plan is to have him elected speaker of the new parliament and thereby in the first line of succession to the presidency. For this plan to be realized, the NAP and its allies nevertheless need to achieve a majority of seats in the parliament. Unlike most countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, however, Azerbaijan is home to an assertive and comparatively well-organized opposition. Although opinion polls in the country are notoriously unreliable, few commentators believe the ruling bloc would receive a majority in a free and fair election. In the 1998 presidential elections, the regime was aided by a boycott of most opposition candidates that left Aliyev with only one major challenger. The amount of fraud necessary to achieve desired results was hence limited, as Aliyev in any case received considerably more votes than any other candidate.

The opposition nevertheless learnt from its mistake, and the four major opposition parties now decided to run in the upcoming elections. Hence the amount of electoral manipulation necessary to produce a pro-regime majority in the upcoming elections would be significant. In fact, it would probably require a blatant and unambiguous adulteration of elections results. As the CE has unambiguously linked Azerbaijani membership to the conduct of the elections, the regime is fully aware that such fraud is likely to mean a rejection of its membership bid, whereas Armenia is next in line for membership. The regime has hence been facing a dilemma. Wide-scale fraud would cause irreparable damage to Azerbaijan internationally, but the alternative would be risking having a parliament controlled by the opposition. That would not immediately put the regime’s control of the country in danger, given that Azerbaijan has a strong presidential system. However, an opposition-controlled parliament would effectively ruin the prospects of Ilham Aliyev’s succession to his father.

President Heydar Aliyev

Barring two opposition parties--indeed the two most irreconcilable ones--in retrospect seems to have been the middle way chosen by the regime. With the Musavat Party and the Democratic Party out of the way, the chances of achieving a pro-regime majority increase significantly. Moreover, the two remaining large parties (the Popular Front Party and the National Independence Party) are more amenable to strike a power-sharing deal with the government. International reactions to the move have been mixed, with the OSCE issuing strong criticism but the US State Department hardly reacting at all. As a result, the Azerbaijani regime has positioned itself strategically on two accounts. It has significantly increased its chances of securing a benevolent parliament, and reduced the risk of suffering a major international setback in the process. Whereas this could be termed a strike of genius, it does not necessarily secure the desired outcome. The ideological differences between the four major opposition parties being negligible, the chance of an opposition victory is still present. Moreover, although the risk could be termed minor, the regime still runs the risk of the CE seeing through its scheme.

*Dr. Svante E. Cornell is a lecturer in the departments of Peace and Conflict Research and East European Studies, Uppsala University, and CEO of Cornell Caspian Consulting

Links:

Azerbaijan Resource Page (Eurasianet)
Azerinews.com
Homepage of the President of Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan International Magazine
Virtual Azerbaijan Republic, by Adil Baguirov